Welcome to the forty-second issue of Bloodgood’s notes. The idea of this newsletter is to give you an overview of the previous week’s fundamentals and what happened on charts as well as to remind you of this week’s articles, secret TA tips, and trading calls. Basically, it’s about giving you all the key info in one place.
Table of contents
- Fundamental overview
- Bitcoin and Ethereum chart
- Blood’s content recap
- Concluding notes
As this community grows, I have a duty to give back to all of you that helped me and supported me to become what I am. This free newsletter is just another way to share my experiences and prepare you for the journey that’s ahead of you.
The markets took a bit of a nosedive towards the end of last week, primarily as investors started to question the Fed pivot thesis that I mentioned in previous newsletters. This is nothing unusual: it’s obvious that the Fed can’t pivot just yet (and it has at least one more decent rate hike to go before it can), so the recent rally quickly became overextended. The natural result is what we’ve seen now, but this doesn’t change the mid-term outlook on the Fed pivot one bit.
Looking at the crypto market, it seems that regulations are the trendy topic again, and for good reason. A lot of the fuss has so far been about coin mixers, but it has much broader implications for crypto as a whole. Earlier this month, the US Treasury sanctioned Tornado Cash, a protocol that allows anyone to anonymously transfer ETH to a different address (and break the chain of traceability). This isn’t that surprising on its own, however the arrest of a Tornado Cash developer in the Netherlands sparked much more outrage. It’s easy to see why: someone who simply developed open source code was arrested because completely different people decided to use that code to launder money. That’s like an engineer who came up with a new engine design—one that is public and can be used by anyone in the world—getting arrested because North Korea decided to use that engine to make better tanks.
|Bitcoin/Dollar Weekly chart|
|Bitcoin/Dollar Daily chart|
Bitcoin crashes below MA200 once again.
Did you already forget about the weekly MA200 which was a tough nut to crack for Bitcoin? Well it seems that it will cause more headaches as we just got a weekly close below it once again. Even though we did not have a full candle close above the MA (meaning the wick and the body), some still felt quite safe to enter into new long positions. The next weekly level that interests us now and could be a good spot to bid Bitcoin lies around $19k.
The daily chart shows us where it went wrong from a technical aspect. The 100MA was rejected a couple of times which could be a result of bulls losing power and simply no longer bidding BTC. I would expect them to step in on the retest of the ascending triangle but no one was interested to buy it there and we are now trading on the support line of the mentioned triangle. If that does not hold, the next level to monitor, as mentioned above, is the weekly support.
|Ethereum/Dollar Weekly chart|
|Ethereum/Bitcoin Weekly chart|
Ethereum rejected at the $1925 resistance and heading towards the $1350 weekly support.
We derisked some ETH from $1900 to $2000; too bad we did not derisk even more, but it is what it is. Next play for me now is to monitor the $1350 level carefully and place bids in case we get a wick to that level. We already won big once, when ETH dropped to $1350 and bounced up in a matter of days. The Stoch RSI is still in the overbought zone which could indicate that further downside is possible. What we want to see now is the weekly support reached and Stoch RSI completely reset.
ETH/BTC was rejected by the 0.077 BTC level, so it seems that we are not yet ready for 0.1 BTC, although I expect ETH to be over 0.08 BTC as the September merge approaches. Let’s see what this week brings us, but there are only 2 technical levels that matter: the 0.077 BTC which is resistance and the support at 0.065 BTC.
Blood’s content recap
You dont need to risk money in 20x coins to make money
“Dont have money to risk your funds in potential 20x coins?
If we learned anything in the last few years is that experimenting pays off
Try new things, sign up to platforms& waitlists, explore crypto tech
You don’t have to invest in new projects to make money, become their user”
Some good news for all of us
“I’m getting informations from people on high positions that in late September FED and ECB will print more money.
Which will result in insane, unexpected Crypto Bull autumn.”
This price action is a good reminder that most traders lose money in choppy markets, rather than full-on trending bear markets (as you can simply invert the chart and trade these just like you would a bull market). It’s also a warning not to get too attached to a narrative prematurely: the Fed pivot is still going to play an extremely important role in the mid- to long-term, but they’ll probably need to act tough on inflation just a bit longer. As winter approaches, with EU citizens facing extreme costs for heating, you better believe that inflation won’t be an overwhelming concern when it comes to printing money.