Welcome to this week’s issue of Bloodgood’s notes. The idea of this newsletter is to give you an overview of the previous week’s fundamentals and what happened on charts as well as to remind you of this week’s articles, secret TA tips, and trading calls. Basically, it’s about giving you all the key info in one place.
Table of contents
- Fundamental overview
- Bitcoin and Ethereum chart
- Blood’s content recap
- Concluding notes
As this community grows, I have a duty to give back to all of you that helped me and supported me to become what I am. This free newsletter is just another way to share my experiences and prepare you for the journey that’s ahead of you.
Fed helds rates, Stocks bounce, weak jobs data and alts push higher
The Fed held rates steady for the second consecutive time and stocks rallied, even though that decision wasn’t exactly unexpected. As for the next FOMC in December, Powell said that no decisions have been made yet, but for now it doesn’t look likely that we’ll see a final hike in 2023. Instead, the market seems to be leaning more towards holding rates for a while and then starting to cut in the first half of 2024. If something like that does play out and we get a Fed pivot, the BTC halving and spot ETFs all in the space of a few months, then it’s easy to see what that would mean for Bitcoin.
It’s always hard to predict anything that far into the future, but for now, things do seem to be heading in that general direction. Friday’s jobs data came in fairly weak, and the previous two months’ readings were also revised down by a lot, while bond yields are finally cooling off. Long story short, things aren’t looking too hawkish.
Bitcoin remains stuck under the resistance.
Both the monthly and the weekly candles closed under a major level, which indicates that bulls were not strong enough for a breakout and there is a possibility to see some red numbers in November. The $35-$36k level remains the area that bulls must break if we want to see $40k reached in 2023.
In case of a bigger retrace, $30k-$31k must hold or else the bullish scenario is invalidated and this will be a fake breakout.
The daily timeframe shows what happened in more detail. We are still trading inside a range after an unsuccessful breakout attempt. At the time of writing BTC is trading just below the range high.
Ever since the range low was printed here, Bitcoin kept on slowly grinding higher which was great for alts, however the volume is dropping and that’s not a good sign when you’re sitting right under resistance. Hence, caution is advised.
SPX, Gold and DXY
U.S. Dollar Index
Stocks defend the 4096 level and bounce higher
After two bloody weeks for SPX, we saw a bounce that retraced the whole dump and reclaimed the trendline. Moreover, it also reclaimed the key level at 4325. The 4096 level was a must-hold level for bulls which was defended, but a new lower low was still printed in the dump. Some would argue that this is a bullish structure, but for me, until the series of lower highs is broken, we’re not in the clear just yet.
Gold retraces back to its breakout level.
Gold bulls take a breather after three weeks of sheer domination. The importance of defending the 1981 level is clear; either it holds or it drops back to 1916. All-time highs are in sight if the level is defended.
U.S. Dollar Index prints a 2% red weekly candle
The weekly has broken and closed below the breakout area at 105 which is a strong bearish signal. If this doesn’t result in a fake breakdown, we might just see crypto and other risk-on assets go way higher.
Keep your eyes on the 105 level as this is do or die for DXY.
Ethereum takes off and reaches $1900.
As soon as the downtrend line was broken, ETH pushed towards $2k. There is a resistance on the daily timeframe around $1900, but the target here is $2000. The weekly volume is increasing which is also a good sign.
In case of a retrace, the $1768 weekly level must hold or else this will look like a bull trap. If bulls manage to break the $2k level, there is a big gap with little or no resistance all the way to $2500.
ETH/BTC is back under the 0.05 BTC level.
As Bitcoin slowed down, alts had some room to grow and ETH/BTC managed to push back to the breakdown level.
The real pump starts when Ethereum breaks above this level, as alts will fly with it. Given that Bitcoin is sitting under resistance we could see that happening, but not while Bitcoin is still grabbing all the attention with ETF headlines.
Some of the most important deadlines for a spot ETF are in January 2024, so if nothing major happens before then, alts have plenty of time to make a move.
Blood’s content recap
The stakes were never higher
“The importance of gettin rich with Crypto was never higher.
Blackrock, State street and Vanguard own everything and they are interested in going after family homes.
The “Great Reset” is in progress and the idea is: You will own nothing and be happy.
Study crypto, get rich and invest as much as possible in out of crypto businesses.”
Apart from the Fed looking less hawkish and a spot BTC ETF being essentially just a matter of time, the thing that a lot of people are celebrating is that Sam Bankman-Fried is going away for a long, long time. After a less-than-impressive defense, with the term “I don’t recall” popping up in almost every single response given by SBF when he took the stand, the jury found him guilty on all 7 counts. The maximum sentence based on the charges is 115 years, and we’ll find out exactly how many Sam will have to serve on March 28, 2024. Meanwhile, he’ll have another trial for 5 additional charges on March 11, and the sentencing for those charges might also be on March 28. What we do know is that the jury wasn’t buying the argument that it’s possible to misplace a few billion accidentally and in good faith. Overall, in spite of all his political connections and donations, SBF simply managed to screw up so bad that there’s no way out, and justice will be served.